Will Ships Sailing Full Scuttle Cruise Deals?

Catch a cruise before deals sail away--Regent's new Seven Seas Grandeur is booking fast

Cruise lines are riding the crest of an enormous wave. Could it wash away your options for  a cruise getaway?

Carnival Corp. reports that almost two-thirds of the capacity of its fleets for 2024 is already booked, with occupancy on its ships over 100 per cent.

Holland America Line had the biggest sales day in the brand’s 150-year history in January, up 18 per cent from its previous peak sales day recorded in July, 2023.

Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings ships sailed at 106 per cent of occupancy in late 2023 and advance bookings are 59 per cent higher that they were in the strong fall of 2019.

And Cunard booked more customers in January than during any equivalent period in the last decade–up 25 per cent for current sailings and into coming years.  

Other cruise lines that had been comparing booking numbers to pre-COVID year  2019 are now comparing their stronger 2024 sales to record bookings in 2023–that were inflated in part by guests re-booking cruises that had been cancelled due to pandemic lockdowns. 

That’s great news for cruise lines which saw some ships sailing half full even in 2023. But it’s shaping up to be a challenge for cruisers who are likely to  see significant price hikes and face limited availability for popular holiday and summer cruise dates.

Even on a full ship there’s plenty of space on a Celebrity cruise–Photo by Wallace Immen

Cruise lines are still offering early booking deals, buy-one get-ones and shipboard credits to entice bookings, but analysts are cautioning that demand is outpacing supply and the cost of cruising is destined to rise substantially.  For example, Celebrity Cruises is extending its 75 per cent off a second guest and up to $200 per stateroom bonus.

But look more closely and most of the less-expensive categories are completely sold out. The only category available for the newest ship, Celebrity Ascent for the March 10-17 Caribbean sailing is a suite in The Retreat that lists for $21,419 for the week.

Making a call to Celebrity to make a booking for the Feb. 25 Ascent sailing, there was only one mid-priced concierge class stateroom available, and the agent said that was because there was a cancellation made just hours before.  The rest of the ship was completely full.

So, even with the arrival of a host of big new cruise ships, will it soon be impossible to book popular cruises for peak vacation weeks? And will the well of deals dry up?

Patrick Scholes, an analyst at Truist Securities thinks so. He told financial website Business Insider that for  2024, pricing across the industry will be up about 8 per cent  compared to 2023 and 20 per cent higher than fares in 2019. Prices for balcony cabins — the most popular category — are as much as 16 per cent  more expensive in 2024 compared to 2023, he added. In spite of that, Scholes says cruises are still generally more affordable than traditional hotels, as hotel and resort prices have soared—up by as much as  50 per cent compared to 2019.

Utopia of the Seas at Coco Cay–Royal Caribbean rendering

Royal Caribbean Group CEO Jason Liberty says company that also includes Celebrity and Silversea Cruises has had its five best booking weeks in history. Despite just adding the new Icon of the Seas that carries over 7,000 guests and the coming Utopia of the Seas adding another 5,600 berths, Royal Caribbean had half as many staterooms left available to book in the first quarter than it did in 2023.

About 35.7 million passengers are expected to cruise in 2024, up from 31.5 million in 2023 — which is 6 per cent more than the total that set sail in 2019, according to industry group Cruise Lines International Association. There’s one thing holding back even more bookings: Enough capacity to deal with all of the demand.

Signs of desperation include Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein predicting that the company could run out of inventory to sell despite having a 5 per cent increase in ship capacity. Meanwhile, Atle Brynestad CEO of small luxury cruise line SeaDream Yacht Club said bookings are so strong for 2024 and 2025, the company has already opened bookings for autumn of 2026.

It’s still too early to declare a cruise crisis. There are still plenty of advance booking savings to be had if you shop around. The best advice is plan early and get a deposit down if you find a cruise on your terms in the coming year.

Story by Wallace Immen, Executive Editor, The Cruisington Times

About Wallace Immen 779 Articles
Wallace Immen is Executive Editor of The Cruisington Times, the Best in Cruising, Travel, Food and Fun. He's sailed on all of the world's seas to ports in over 100 countries and travelled on every continent.